Monday, August 22, 2011

Surging sharply, but the price retreated at closing

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 19 August, the dollar fell against most of the major currencies. The dollar faced pressure due to the concern of the economic growth.
Investors' concern on the economy dominated the market trend. Morgan Stanley lowered the expectation of the global economic growth in the previous trading day. On 19, JP Morgan has turned down the fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth from previous 2.5% to 1% in a report.
Market began to shift the focus to the annual meeting of global central banks held next week. Investors expected the Fed may announce the decision of the new loose monetary policy in this meeting. The increase of the liquidity in the market will not benefit the dollar. It is predicted that there will be downward pressure on the dollar.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.
August 19, international gold closed higher, hitting the highest closing price in four consecutive days. Due to the concern of the global economic growth,
investors remained wary of the stock market, and thus turned to buy gold futures as hedge assets.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 15:00 Switzerland M3 Money Supply (July);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1824.50 USD on 19 August, with intra-day Low at 1821.73 USD and intra-day High at 1878.05 USD, eventually closing at 1852.36 USD. Intra-day range of 56.32 USD was seen.
Gold maintained a strong upward pattern last Friday, perfectly achieving the recent uptrend.
World Gold Council released the report of the gold demand trend for the second quarter of 2011. It stated that demand of gold in China and India was
outstanding. The purchase of the two countries accounted for more than half of the world. Meanwhile, global central banks' net purchase of gold amounted to 69.4 tons, which increased for more than 4 times compared with the same period last year.
Gold maintained the previous trading pattern. We must note that gold may have large adjustment with a large time span when there were continued worries from the investors in the financial turmoil. With more adjustment, the higher price will appear.
The recent trend was the high oscillation in short-term and upward movement. Long position maintained.
Trading suggestions:
Recent long positions could be maintained, with stop-loss at 1821.50. Since the price surged and retreated on Friday, it will be more reliable to open the position after certain adjustments in the market appeared. In this process please beware of the possible retracement.

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