Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Price adjusted after surging, and the uptrend confirmed

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 3 August, the dollar fell sharply. The risk bearing currencies diversified.
Swiss central bank unexpectedly cut interest rate to curb the currency's appreciation. Market was shrouded in the weak U.S. economic recovery. The fiscal expansion was limited. The Fed may be preparing to start the third round of the quantitative easing measures.
Market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation remained.
August 3, international gold closed higher, hitting a record high again. Investors worried about the prospect of the U.S. economy which may fall into a "double-dip" recession cycle and may introduce further monetary easing policy.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 12:00 Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision;
GMT+8 18:00 Germany Manufacturing Orders (June);
GMT+8 19:00 UK Central Bank announced Interest Rate Decision, pre-value 0.5%;
GMT+8 19:45 Eurozone European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, pre-value 1.5%;
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (29 July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1660. 41 USD on 3 August, with intra-day Low at 1652.12 USD and intra-day High at 1672.58 USD, eventually closing at 1661.76 USD.
Gold surged slightly and then adjusted on Wednesday and the overall uptrend was perfect. Long position should be maintained.
In term of continuity, the uptrend in medium and long term confirmed if the price doesn't fall below1616. The estimated target will be at the range between 1740 and 1750.
Trading suggestions:
Long position in long term could be held with stop-loss below 1616 USD, targeting 1740.

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