Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Adjustment is not sufficient, and there may be greater retreat

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 31, the euro and the pound fell against the dollar. Swiss franc rose due to the support of the long-term trend line.
Non-US currencies diversified. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Labor Department of releasing the August unemployment rate and the non-farm payrolls data on September 2 Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.
August 31, international gold closed slightly lower and it maintained the narrow range oscillation. The further upward momentum was not sufficient.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:00 Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (August);
GMT+8 16:30 UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (August);
GMT+8 20:30 US Non-farm Productivity (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 20:30 US Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (August 26);
GMT+8 22:00 US Construction Spending (July);
MT+8 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing Index, pre-value 50.9 (August).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1835.75 USD on 31 August, with intra-day Low at 1813.41 USD and intra-day High at 1839.10 USD, eventually closing at 1825.72 USD. Intra-day range of 25.69 USD was seen.
Gold oscillated and retreated slightly overnight. The rebound pattern maintains currently. Due to the insufficient partial adjustment, theoretically the potential target moves down to around 1855-1860 USD. There is choppy consolidation at the high level now. Investors should be alert to the failure of rebound and the increase of downward momentum.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustment in the mid-term. The adjustment of up movement from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
It is expected that before the European bonds and the Federal Reserve policy are further visualized, gold remains to be in high oscillation.
Trading suggestions:
Lower the gold's prediction ability. Long position could be closed appropriately, or held with take-profit.

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