Tuesday, August 09, 2011

The medium and short-term targets achieved, and gold oscillated at high level

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 9 August, the dollar index retreated, but Swiss franc continued to rise. The euro and commodity currencies moved in upward oscillation.
Fed announced on Wednesday morning that interest rate will remain unchanged at the range of 0-0.25%, and they promised to maintain the low interest rate until at least mid-2013.
The Fed does not imply to start a new round of quantitative easing policy, but said the downside risk was increasing. They will give clear instructions to maintain low interest rate policy, which is the first time to show clear guidelines since the end of 2008,
Market believed that the Fed didn't immediately turn to the third round of the quantitative easing policy, but directly locked the ultra-low interest rate?in a very long period of time, which means that further easing policy would not be possible.
On the other side, the European Central Bank's new round of assistance measures for Italy and Spain have been challenged by investors. This further exacerbated fears in financial markets.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There will still be many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation continued.
August 9, international gold closed higher, breaking the historical high closing price again. The trend retreated after surging. Market concerned about the global economic prospect and there were selling orders. Investors took gold futures for hedging. The market sentiment will be in focus.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (July);
GMT+8 14:45 France Industrial Production (June);
GMT+8 17:30 UK Central Bank's quarterly inflation report;
GMT+8 22:00 US Wholesale Inventories (June).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1719. 16 USD on 9 August, with intra-day Low at 1715.40 USD and intra-day High at 1779.18 USD, eventually closing at 1740.92 USD. Intra-day range of 63.78 USD was seen.
Gold achieved the medium-term target 1750 USD due to its popularity and the technical trend on Tuesday. The short-term cycle will be achieved around 1770.
The rise in the medium-term has finished. It takes at least 1-2 months adjustment before the gold rises further.
In the short-term trend, there will still be 5 trading days with high oscillation or upward movement partially.
Gold is in large adjustment cycle. There may be higher record.
Trading suggestions:
Positions could be closed after achieving the medium-term target, and the rest could be held in a small amount with take-profit at 1715. Continuity should be noted.If there is secondary adjustment in short-term, long position could be considered appropriately.

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