Sunday, August 28, 2011

Gold fluctuated with high volatility, and the risk hindered its up movement

Last week, gold price went up and down. On the one hand, it hit a record high; on the other hand, there is a history of biggest one-day drop. These two seemingly diametrically opposite phenomenon happened in the same week.
On Monday, followed by the rally from the previous week, gold surged from the low level 1,857 to the historical high level 1,912. The market expected target of 1,900, from 1,800 in early August, has been broken in less than a month. When the price was in unstoppable rise, hitting a new record, it retreated on Tuesday, from 1,910 1,823 dollars, a drop of 87. But the bigger drop was on Wednesday. The price from the day's high 1,856 fell to 1,739, a drop of more than 100 to 117. This decline can be regarded as the highest in history. The up movement was suppressed and it dropped back close to 1,700 at the low level 1,702. On Friday, due to the buying orders supported, the gold rebounded and closed at high price 1,828.
Gold went up due to its strength, and the trend was entirely affected by the buying and selling orders. There is no impact from other market news. But from the highest price of gold and the biggest one-day drop, it is estimated investors will calm down slightly. Other factors of the financial markets will influence slowly again.
Observed from a technical trend, the price of gold had apparent decline on Tuesday and Wednesday. It was technically bearish and it is expected to be adjusted. However, whether the plunge of gold to nearly 1,700 last Thursday, means that technical adjustment can be acute and fast? Whether the adjustment of last Thursday was adequate? This week's major support level was around 1,730. If the price tries to breaking down this support, obviously longer period of time for downward adjustment is inevitable. Now there is still a lot of buying to hedge the risk. Whether it fell below the support depends on the attitude of buyers.
The volatility of gold will still be large this week. The up support will be at 1.735. If it fell below1, 730, the trend will retry the psychological barrier of 1,700. The rising resistance is at the previous high level which is estimated to be 1,920. Price is still in big fluctuation. Investors should be careful to the risk, and wait for opening positions.
The performance of silver and gold are similar. It also rose to high level last Monday, and retreated sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday. It finally closed at 41.3. The overall performance was still not as good as gold. It is estimated this week's oscillation will be 38-43.

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