Thursday, August 25, 2011

The mid-term adjustment confirmed

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 25, the dollar rose and fell against major currencies. The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims increased significantly last week and the market still worried about the debt problem in Greece.
Market still put most attention to the Fed meeting on 26. The majority of investors believe the Fed will not further raise the easing monetary policy at the meeting, but it may convey to the market that Fed's monetary policy is still feasible, when necessary, is able to adopt effective policy measures.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.
August 25, international gold rebounded before closing, finishing the decrease in two consecutive days. The expectation of investors for more easing policies implied by Bernanke lessened. The European stock markets fell against most of the currencies. Market suspected that Germany may be the next country being downgraded its sovereign credit rating. Capital flew back to hedging assets such as gold.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany Retail Sales (July);
GMT+8 16:30 UK GDP (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 17:30 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (August);
GMT+8 20:30 US Revised GDP (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 21:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index (August);
GMT+8 22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech.
Gold:
Gold opened at 1760.25 USD on 25 August, with intra-day Low at 1703.47 USD and intra-day High at 1774.78 USD, eventually closing at 1773.57 USD. Intra-day range of 71.31 USD was seen.
European markets fell below the key support 1723 in the daily chart in early trading on Thursday. The reverse momentum in the market continued. It came across buying orders at nearly 1,700 and gradually rebounded, closed at a bullish candle with longer shadow.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustments in the mid-term. The adjustment of rising from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
Trading suggestions:
The possible oscillation range is 1814-1700. Before the adjustment, temporarily trading at oscillation range could consider.

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