Adjustment is not sufficient, and there may be greater retreat

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 31, the euro and the pound fell against the dollar. Swiss franc rose due to the support of the long-term trend line.
Non-US currencies diversified. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Labor Department of releasing the August unemployment rate and the non-farm payrolls data on September 2 Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 31, international gold closed slightly lower and it maintained the narrow range oscillation. The further upward momentum was not sufficient.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:00 Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (August);
GMT+8 16:30 UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (August);
GMT+8 20:30 US Non-farm Productivity (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 20:30 US Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (August 26);
GMT+8 22:00 US Construction Spending (July);
MT+8 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing Index, pre-value 50.9 (August).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1835.75 USD on 31 August, with intra-day Low at 1813.41 USD and intra-day High at 1839.10 USD, eventually closing at 1825.72 USD. Intra-day range of 25.69 USD was seen.

Gold oscillated and retreated slightly overnight. The rebound pattern maintains currently. Due to the insufficient partial adjustment, theoretically the potential target moves down to around 1855-1860 USD. There is choppy consolidation at the high level now. Investors should be alert to the failure of rebound and the increase of downward momentum.

Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustment in the mid-term. The adjustment of up movement from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
It is expected that before the European bonds and the Federal Reserve policy are further visualized, gold remains to be in high oscillation.
Trading suggestions:
Lower the gold's prediction ability. Long position could be closed appropriately, or held with take-profit.

Rebound continued and long position could be considered

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 30, the euro fell against the dollar. From the debate over agreement of Europe for aiding Greece to the fall of the U.S. consumer confidence, market risk increased.
As the U.S. economy was nearly stalled in the first half year, the Fed's regular meeting in August, has been considering the acquisition of assets, i.e. the quantitative easing policy. Recently, the International Monetary Fund has generally downgraded the expected global economic growth, including the U.S. The Fed may have to prepare for the easing policy.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet did not give warning to the inflation which had been doing for a long time in his speech. It implied that the European Central Bank may stop increasing interest rate in longer period. Trichet said since economic crisis, the euro currency remained stable. Other currencies cannot compare with it. The Eurozone credit problems were led by several state members, but not by the whole region.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 30, international gold closed higher and it hit a highest closing price in the week. It is because market expected the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) will further introduce the monetary easing policy to stimulate the economy. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence Report is also disappointed.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:00 Germany Unemployment Rate (August);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (August);
GMT+8 20:30 Canada GDP (June);
GMT+8 21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, pre-value 58.8 (August);
GMT+8 22:00 US Factory Orders, pre-value -0.8%/month (July).
Gold:

Gold opened at 1788.28 USD on 30 August, with intra-day Low at 1783.96 USD and intra-day High at 1840.10 USD, eventually closing at 1835.50 USD. Intra-day range of 56.14 USD was seen.

Gold had an upward breakthrough after adjusting overnight in the adjustment area, closing with a large bullish candle. The rebound pattern continued currently. Theoretically the potential target of movement is near 1908 USD.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustment in the mid-term. The adjustment of up movement from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
It is expected that before the European bonds and the Federal Reserve policy were further visualized, gold remained to have high oscillation.
Trading suggestions:
Long position could be considered. Considering from the trend level with a reasonable profit and loss ratio, positions could be appropriately reduced.

Moving downward technically, beware of its continuity

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 29, the dollar rose and fell against major currencies. Market lacks an effective motivation. Last Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank did not imply QE3 in the global annual meeting. It postponed the discussion of specific stimulating policies to this week's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rate. The Fed did not refuse to launch further stimulus so that the dollar was under pressure.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 29, international gold fell sharply. The European and U.S. stock markets rose. With less risk, the hedging assets including gold were sold-off. Spot gold fell sharply, closing at 1,788.30 dollars / ounce.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Business Climate Index (August);
GMT+8 20:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index (July);
GMT+8 22:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (August).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1827.88 USD on 29 August, with intra-day Low at 1776.57 USD and intra-day High at 1829.00 USD, eventually closing at 1788.30 USD. Intra-day range of 52.43 USD was seen.

?With the appropriate technical factors, gold came across resistance at high price on Monday, falling sharply before closing.

Compared with the rebound from August 25 and yesterday's retreat, the alternative momentum has not appeared yet. It is possible that gold will move up again after adjusting in the adjustment area from yesterday.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustment in the mid-term. The adjustment of up movement from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
Trading suggestions:
Selling orders could be held near 1830. Beware of the continuity of falling. Range trading is suggested.Short position could be considered appropriatelybelow 1814.4, with stop-loss at the high level of yesterday. Trend traders could consider long position when the up movement continues.

Rebound continued and the partial pattern was clear

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 26, the dollar rose and fell against major currencies. This week's speech of Bernanke did not imply the expected QE3.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke believed that there is a series of tools to stimulate economic growth, but he did not make specific statements, and did not announce any new economic stimulus measures. He said more policies will be discussed in the late September Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting Meanwhile, this week, the topic of the economic downturn has occupied the foreign exchange market. Several large investment banking institutions have reduced expectations for economic growth, and the value of the latest second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has also been revised downward. It is concerned that the second bottom in the market may be close.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 26, international gold continued to rebound. After the Federal Reserve's pessimistic expectation on the economy and the speech of launching more monetary policies in September, gold rebounded.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 20:30 US Personal Income, pre-value 0.1 (September).
Gold:

Gold opened at 1772.80 USD on 26 August, with intra-day Low at 1757.51 USD and intra-day High at 1828.00 USD, eventually closing at 1827.88 USD. Intra-day range of 70.49 USD was seen.

After gold announced yesterday the first round of the downward movement ended, with market comments and technical requirements, upward rebound continued, closing with the large bullish candle.
Starting from 1,703 there was a partial three-wave structure. It is estimated that the price near 1832 and 1836 may have adjustments or retreat.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustments in the mid-term. The adjustment of up movement from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
Trading suggestions:
Short position could be considered near 1836, or selling after price breaking below 1814.4, or buying near the up moving channel from 1703 and targeting near 1730.

Gold fluctuated with high volatility, and the risk hindered its up movement

Last week, gold price went up and down. On the one hand, it hit a record high; on the other hand, there is a history of biggest one-day drop. These two seemingly diametrically opposite phenomenon happened in the same week.

On Monday, followed by the rally from the previous week, gold surged from the low level 1,857 to the historical high level 1,912. The market expected target of 1,900, from 1,800 in early August, has been broken in less than a month. When the price was in unstoppable rise, hitting a new record, it retreated on Tuesday, from 1,910 1,823 dollars, a drop of 87. But the bigger drop was on Wednesday. The price from the day's high 1,856 fell to 1,739, a drop of more than 100 to 117. This decline can be regarded as the highest in history. The up movement was suppressed and it dropped back close to 1,700 at the low level 1,702. On Friday, due to the buying orders supported, the gold rebounded and closed at high price 1,828.

Gold went up due to its strength, and the trend was entirely affected by the buying and selling orders. There is no impact from other market news. But from the highest price of gold and the biggest one-day drop, it is estimated investors will calm down slightly. Other factors of the financial markets will influence slowly again.

Observed from a technical trend, the price of gold had apparent decline on Tuesday and Wednesday. It was technically bearish and it is expected to be adjusted. However, whether the plunge of gold to nearly 1,700 last Thursday, means that technical adjustment can be acute and fast? Whether the adjustment of last Thursday was adequate? This week's major support level was around 1,730. If the price tries to breaking down this support, obviously longer period of time for downward adjustment is inevitable. Now there is still a lot of buying to hedge the risk. Whether it fell below the support depends on the attitude of buyers.

The volatility of gold will still be large this week. The up support will be at 1.735. If it fell below1, 730, the trend will retry the psychological barrier of 1,700. The rising resistance is at the previous high level which is estimated to be 1,920. Price is still in big fluctuation. Investors should be careful to the risk, and wait for opening positions.

The performance of silver and gold are similar. It also rose to high level last Monday, and retreated sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday. It finally closed at 41.3. The overall performance was still not as good as gold. It is estimated this week's oscillation will be 38-43.

The mid-term adjustment confirmed

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 25, the dollar rose and fell against major currencies. The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims increased significantly last week and the market still worried about the debt problem in Greece.
Market still put most attention to the Fed meeting on 26. The majority of investors believe the Fed will not further raise the easing monetary policy at the meeting, but it may convey to the market that Fed's monetary policy is still feasible, when necessary, is able to adopt effective policy measures.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 25, international gold rebounded before closing, finishing the decrease in two consecutive days. The expectation of investors for more easing policies implied by Bernanke lessened. The European stock markets fell against most of the currencies. Market suspected that Germany may be the next country being downgraded its sovereign credit rating. Capital flew back to hedging assets such as gold.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany Retail Sales (July);
GMT+8 16:30 UK GDP (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 17:30 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (August);
GMT+8 20:30 US Revised GDP (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 21:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index (August);
GMT+8 22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech.
Gold:

Gold opened at 1760.25 USD on 25 August, with intra-day Low at 1703.47 USD and intra-day High at 1774.78 USD, eventually closing at 1773.57 USD. Intra-day range of 71.31 USD was seen.

European markets fell below the key support 1723 in the daily chart in early trading on Thursday. The reverse momentum in the market continued. It came across buying orders at nearly 1,700 and gradually rebounded, closed at a bullish candle with longer shadow.
Long period of the uptrend of gold is perfect currently. It turned to significant adjustments in the mid-term. The adjustment of rising from July 1at least takes one month.
After the overall pattern is confirmed, we can observe the formation of the partial adjustment, in order to facilitate the prediction of continuity and movement.
Trading suggestions:
The possible oscillation range is 1814-1700. Before the adjustment, temporarily trading at oscillation range could consider.

Momentum continued and gold is approaching the support

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 24, the dollar rose and fell against major currencies. It rose against the euro and the yen while it was lower against the Canadian dollar. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders in July increased significantly, boosting investors' confidence in the U.S. economy. Market concerns about the monetary policy decision which may be announced this weekend by the Fed.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.
August 24, international gold closed much lower. Falling below 1,800/ounce, it was the biggest decline since March 2008.? Stock prices increased and market was not sure whether the Federal Reserve will issue the new round of stimulus measurement. In addition to the sharp increase of gold, price retreated from investors' profit taking.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 Switzerland ZEW Consumer Confidence Index (August);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Initial Claims for the Unemployment Benefit (August 20).

Gold:
Gold opened at 1829.15 USD on 24 August, with intra-day Low at 1750.13 USD and intra-day High at 1854.03 USD, eventually closing at 1758.90 USD. Intra-day range of 103.90 USD was seen.
There was no significant upward momentum on Wednesday. Due to the adjustment without momentum, price fell sharply when entering the North American market.The reverse momentum continued.
The key support currently is 1,723.40. If it is downward broken, it will show the end of the upward movement at daily chart. If it closes below 1,723.40,there will be further retreat.

Trading suggestions:
The oscillation range may move down to 1814-1723. It is predicted that the price will fluctuate above 1723. If there is significant fluctuation, investors could sell at high price and trade in oscillation temporarily.

Gold Downward momentum taking turn, gold retreated sharply

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 23 August, due to the expectation of Fed's policy, the dollar oscillated downward against major currencies. The Eurozone debt related information suppressed the euro so that it retreated after surging. The direction of the market is still uncertain. The exchange rate also depends on the more significant breakthrough factors.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.
August 23, international gold closed lower. The three major U.S. New York stock markets opened with slight higher price. The dollar rebounded against overall assets. The price of gold, went back below 1900 USD, had further expansion of decline.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 German IFO Business Climate Index (August);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Industrial Orders (June);
GMT+8 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders (July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1896.51 USD on 23 August, with intra-day Low at 1824.40 USD and intra-day High at 1911.86 USD, eventually closing at 1828.74 USD. Intra-day range of 87.46 USD was seen.
Gold in Asian markets on Tuesday morning oscillated in a narrow range after surging, and it fell sharply when entering the American market, falling below the key support of 1,851. It confirmed that gold is in high adjustment and the partial upward movement ended Gold remained the previous trading option. When the overall upward momentum is losing, it enters the mid-term adjustment.
Trading suggestions:
Market turned to be at high oscillation. The possible oscillation range is between 1814 and 1911. Please beware of the continuity of the downward momentum.

After increasing in the medium-term, the partial pattern of loop started

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
It is expected by the investors that in facing the economic turmoil, the Fed may launch the further stimulating scheme.
Market began to shift the focus to the annual meeting of global central banks held next week. Investors expected the Fed may announce the decision of the new loose monetary policy in this meeting. The increase of the liquidity in the market will not benefit the dollar. It is predicted that there will be downward pressure on the dollar.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 22, international gold closed higher. Due to the U.S. economic downturn, the Fed further implementation of the new round of monetary easing policy was expected to heat up, increasing gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge asset.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
GMT+8 20:30 Canada Retail Sales (June)
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. New Home Sales (July)
GMT+8 22:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (August)
Gold:

Gold opened at 1851.90 USD on 22 August, with intra-day Low at 1851.70 USD and intra-day High at 1898.20 USD, eventually closing at 1896.72 USD. Intra-day range of 46.50 USD was seen.

Overnight gold continued to have strong upward movement. The U.S. investors seek the hedging assets other than bonds, and the market was expected to return to high inflation countries. The gold spot gained a strong momentum.
In the early Asian trade today, gold fast broke up and got strong pattern. The recent unilateral upward movement was perfect.
After achieving the target of increasing in the medium-term, the short-term second round of upward loop started. Long position remained. It is predicted that the target of gold will be near 1942.
Trading suggestions:
Recent long positions could be maintained, with stop-loss at 1851.50. Beware of the short-term continuity of gold, investors should not trade adversely.

Gold hit a record high, and silver followed

Gold market turned to be incredible last week. The price was increasing to a record high every day. Gold started at the low level 1,727.80 USD last Monday to the highest 1,828.80 on Thursday, which exceeded the historical peak of the previous week. It hit the new record of 1,878 on Friday. There was over 150 USD increase from 1,727.80 to 1, 878. The price finally closed at 1,850.60.

There were many high levels last week. The trend of silver was up, but did not go beyond the record of 50 USD in April. Silver rose at the beginning without obvious increase. Last Monday it started at 36.7. The highest price did not break through 41. But when the gold hit a record high on Thursday and Friday respectively, there were buying orders in the silver market to chase behind. So, silver rose sharply on Friday. The daily price rose from 40.50 to the recent high of 42.90, with nearly 6% increase per day.

Global financial markets last week remained chaotic. Stock market tumbled. Investors worried about whether the global economy goes into recession again so that stock and commodity are subject to selling, and the market capital flows in the gold and silver market. After the U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, the U.S. debt was still benefiting from the financial market and the uncertain economic situation. Some hedge funds were flowing into the U.S. Treasury bonds. The dollar is thus stabilized. The correlation of the dollar and gold price last week was not obvious.

The performance of gold and silver last week was better than other commodity prices because investors were bearish toward commodity when concerning the economic prospect. In addition, if the U.S. economy goes into recession again, the possibility of launching the third phase of quantitative easing monetary policy will be higher. Under the asset and price bubbles, the gold and silver will be popular again.

Observed from the gold market, new buying orders has supported and affected the gold price. It is estimated the price this week is still at high volatility and has a new record. The volatility can be more than 150. The risk of investment is considerably high. The next high level can be temporarily set at 1,900 with support level at 1,750. Before silver testing a high potential price, the target can be placed at 45 with support level at 39.

Surging sharply, but the price retreated at closing

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 19 August, the dollar fell against most of the major currencies. The dollar faced pressure due to the concern of the economic growth.
Investors' concern on the economy dominated the market trend. Morgan Stanley lowered the expectation of the global economic growth in the previous trading day. On 19, JP Morgan has turned down the fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth from previous 2.5% to 1% in a report.
Market began to shift the focus to the annual meeting of global central banks held next week. Investors expected the Fed may announce the decision of the new loose monetary policy in this meeting. The increase of the liquidity in the market will not benefit the dollar. It is predicted that there will be downward pressure on the dollar.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 19, international gold closed higher, hitting the highest closing price in four consecutive days. Due to the concern of the global economic growth,

investors remained wary of the stock market, and thus turned to buy gold futures as hedge assets.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 15:00 Switzerland M3 Money Supply (July);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July).

Gold:
Gold opened at 1824.50 USD on 19 August, with intra-day Low at 1821.73 USD and intra-day High at 1878.05 USD, eventually closing at 1852.36 USD. Intra-day range of 56.32 USD was seen.

Gold maintained a strong upward pattern last Friday, perfectly achieving the recent uptrend.
World Gold Council released the report of the gold demand trend for the second quarter of 2011. It stated that demand of gold in China and India was
outstanding. The purchase of the two countries accounted for more than half of the world. Meanwhile, global central banks' net purchase of gold amounted to 69.4 tons, which increased for more than 4 times compared with the same period last year.
Gold maintained the previous trading pattern. We must note that gold may have large adjustment with a large time span when there were continued worries from the investors in the financial turmoil. With more adjustment, the higher price will appear.
The recent trend was the high oscillation in short-term and upward movement. Long position maintained.
Trading suggestions:
Recent long positions could be maintained, with stop-loss at 1821.50. Since the price surged and retreated on Friday, it will be more reliable to open the position after certain adjustments in the market appeared. In this process please beware of the possible retracement.

Gold Hit a new high and the market will test the validity of a breakthrough

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 18 August, USD fell against major currencies. Due to weak U.S. economic data and concerns that banks around Europe risk aversion, the euro lowered sharply, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand and other commodity-related currencies also lowered sharply.
The whole structure of the foreign exchange market continued the previous big technology trends. There are still many uncertainties. Wide range of recent shocks repeatedly maintained.
International Gold is closed strongly upwards. Due to the poor performance of U.S. economic data while the European Central Bank provided the euro area a bank loan of USD that highlighted the euro area financial system faced funding shortages. European and American stock market crashed that's why a lot of money flow into gold and U.S. Treasury for hedging.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany Producer Price Index (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Canada Consumer Price Index (July);

Gold:
Gold opened at 1791 USD on 18 August, with intra-day Low at 1784.40 USD and intra-day High at 1828.55 USD, eventually closing at 1824.59 USD. Intra-day range of 44.15 USD was seen.
Gold moved strongly upward last night. The flow after adjustment is matched with the market sentiment. It was broke through the recent anticipation interval.It is continued the upstream after early trading in Asian City.
Trading of Gold can be maintained unchanged. If the price needs to be going upwards, it needs to be adjustment within 1 to 2 months.
The price will oscillated at high pace and maintain upstream. There will be a new high when gold is adjusted in the major restructuring cycle.

Trading suggestions:
The market will test the validity of a breakthrough at USD1814.43. Should pay attention the target has been close to achieving since form August 15. Short term of trading of buy in can be held with stop loss below USD 1814.40.

Gold Pay attention to the downward movement because the volatility is narrowed

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 17 August, USD fell against major currencies. Increasing of US July producer price index and inflation pressures were partially offset the expectation of investors for the Fed that may put a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy.
Besides, Bank of England's latest monetary policy meeting minutes showed the decision to keep the interest rates unchanged.
The whole structure of the foreign exchange market continued the previous big technology trends. There are still many uncertainties. Wide range of recent shocks repeatedly maintained.
International Gold is closed at high pace on Wednesday but the volatility is narrowed. Investors are continued to worry about the European debt problem so gold is still being a hedge fund asset.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:30 UK retail sales (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Construction spending (June);
GMT+8 20:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Consumer Price Index (July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1786.05 USD on 17 August, with intra-day Low at 1781.28 USD and intra-day High at 1794.70 USD, eventually closing at 1790.70 USD. Intra-day range of 13.42 USD was seen.
Gold was moving upward strongly in the expected volatility but the market is still have no part of the running rhythm and volatility is narrowed. It may increase the adjustment in short term.At present, the movement of upward will not continue. If the price needs to be going upwards, it needs to be adjustment within 1 to 2 months.
The trend in short-term will make the pace of gold into adjustment on high level.

Trading suggestions:
To maintained recently suggestion. The Price of gold will be moved in the wide range of 1720-1814, trading can be made in short term. Buy in at USD 1767 is suggested as the price may move downward.

Gold The same pattern with oscillated on high pace

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 16 August, USD mixed against major currencies. Foreign exchange market is still turbulence that's why increased the demand of hedging fund.
The meeting of Germany and France leaders had no substantial results. Both of the two leaders state that the introduction of common euro-zone bonds will not help to resolve the crisis and there is no need to expand the euro area's rescue fund size. Market is expected the debt crisis and the EU's concerns about the global economic recovery may continue to inhibit the rebound of the euro in short-term market.
The whole structure of the foreign exchange market continued the previous big technology trends. There are still many uncertainties. Wide range of recent shocks repeatedly maintained.

International Gold closed at high pace on 16 Aug, The euro zone and overall economic conditions prompted investors to sell commodities and fixed income products to buy gold. But the market thinks that the price of gold has reached the level of speculative bubbles produced. Investors in the asset allocation should be wary of holding large positions in precious metals.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:30 Bank of England announced meeting on August 4;
GMT+8 16:30 British unemployment rate before the value of 4.7% (July);
GMT+8 16:45 Eurozone consumer price index (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. July producer price index value of -0.4% / month, 7.0% /year;
Gold:
Gold opened at 1765.68 USD on 16 August, with intra-day Low at 1761.00 USD and intra-day High at 1787.00USD, eventually closing at 1785.95 USD. Intra-day range of 26 USD was seen.
The market is continued with the demand of the technical rhythm. The price is oscillated in high pace on Tuesday with not enough power on short term. After the energy of moving upward is consumed, it will go into an adjustment stage.

At present, the movement of upward will not continue. If the price needs to be going upwards, it needs to be adjustment within 1 to 2 months.
The trend in short-term will make the pace of gold into adjustment on high level. The upstream channel is expected to support around 1720-1715 from thebeginning of July.

There will be a new high when gold is adjusted in the major restructuring cycle.
Trading suggestions:
To maintained recently suggestion. The Price of gold will be moved in the wide range of 1720-1814, trading can be made in short term.

Gold is oscillated in high pace but no power to move upwards

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 15 August, Because of the Swiss central bank will likely set up the Swiss franc exchange rate target to inhibit the increasing rate that's why Swiss franc against the euro and USD fell the lowest in these two weeks. The euro rose to nearly the highest in these three weeks because investors expect French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel's meeting on euro zone's debt crisis will have positive results.
The whole structure of the foreign exchange market continued the previous big technology trends. There are still many uncertainties. Wide range of recent shocks repeatedly maintained.
International Gold closed at high pace on 15 Aug, The poor performance of U.S. economic data and the USD index dropped which boost the price of gold and extend the oscillation. After a continuous rise the gold price is going into a period of adjustment.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany before the second quarter, the value of GDP 1.5% / quarter;
GMT+8 16:30 UK consumer price index (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone trade balance (June);
GMT+8 17:00 The euro area before the second quarter GDP of 0.8% / quarter, 2.5% / year;
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. housing starts working (July);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S before the value of building permits, 624,000 (July);
GMT+8 21:15 U.S. industrial production of 0.2% (July).

Gold:
Gold opened at 1746.47 USD on 15 August, with intra-day Low at 1729.82 USD and intra-day High at 1766.24USD, eventually closing at 1765.78 USD. Intra-day range of 36.42 USD was seen.
The market is continued with the demand of the technical rhythm. The price is oscillated in high pace on Monday with not enough power on short term. After the energy of moving upward is consumed, it will go into an adjustment stage.
At present, the movement of upward will not continue. If the price needs to be going upwards, it needs to be adjustment within 1 to 2 months.
The trend in short-term will make the pace of gold into adjustment on high level. The upstream channel is expected to support around 1720-1715 from the beginning of July.
There will be a new high when gold is adjusted in the major restructuring cycle.

Trading suggestions:
Price of gold will be moved in the wide range of 1720-1814, trading can be made in short term. If it moves below this range then the movement will be downwards.

Gold price is moving down when reached the new high and will repeated at high pace in short term

Last week, gold is still supported by the financial market's instability sentiment. Investors' response to sovereign rating was not completed although other international rating agencies have expressed to maintain the U.S. sovereign rating. It is still difficult to adjust the credit and debt crisis will worsen or not. High hedge assets such as gold and the Swiss franc are grab high in the market. Gold prices in the new round of buying support, last week hit a high record of $ 1,814.50.

Last Monday the price of gold was moved up after the reduction of United States' sovereign rating. The funds immediately went into the gold market. The gold price on that day had a trial at high record of 1723, on Tuesday appeared another new high of 1780, to last Wednesday the last hit a high record at1814.50. If calculated from the lowest 1682 from last Monday to the highest 1814.50 on Wednesday, there was an USD132.50 increase last week. Gold price began to fall on Thursday. The price of gold plunged from 1,808.40 back to 1,732. That day have a decline of 76.40. That decline in the technology trend was one day reversal and temporary stop the trading of investors. The price of gold on Friday had a minor downward adjustment and close at 1756.30 finally.

The recent trend of the price of silver and gold trend was significantly different, which suggests that gold is good on the characteristics of financial assets. Silver price per ounce last week is only USD39 and fluctuated at the central axis jagged. After Standard & Poor's lowered the sovereign rating of the United States, the global response is just begun to start. It is estimated that price of gold still has a large collection over and over again in short-term. Silver will still be inferior to the price performance of gold.

The price of gold will benefit from the hedging of U.S. dollar assets supported by capital inflows but there will be a bearish factor in short term which is included the recent increase in the price of gold. On Wednesday appeared one day reversal; U.S. stocks will go into recession as investors expected of future U.S. economic. After economic deterioration, the ability of investors to hold assets and reduced the demand of gold is bearish on the price of gold. Other point that need to be noted that was the recent gold price moving up and down repeatedly. The U.S. gold futures market will raise the margin of gold future which made investors have a certain pressure on holding multiple positions in short-term.
I believe the volatility of this week will be over USD100 and the price volatility is between in USD1700 to 1820. Investors should be caution the price will fell down when reach a new high record. Investors having short positions should be caution the sudden increase of long positions. Silver prices will be resisting at USD41, lower support will be around USD36.

Gold oscillated at high level, the price is staying in the period of adjustment

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 12August, the dollar index oscillated; do not have a constant ratio to the main currencies. There is a low rate of USD to the Euro and to the pound but have a high rate on Swiss franc, Canadian dollar. Swiss central bank policy by which the Swiss franc and the Italian austerity plan is expected to influence, continued to drop.
The whole structure of the foreign exchange market continued the previous big technology trends. There are still many uncertainties. Wide range of recent shocks repeatedly maintained.
International Gold closed down on August 12. As there was a good U.S. retail sales data which released on 12 Aug, the confidence of investor has been restored. Thereby easing the market risk aversion and leading the international gold prices fell for the second trading day. After a continuous rise the gold price is going into a period of adjustment.
Market may continue to focus on emotional changes.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 15:15 Switzerland in producer / import price index (July);
GMT+8 21:00 U.S. net capital inflows , before the long-term value of $ 23.6 billion (June);

Gold：
Gold opened at 1765.13 USD on 12 August, with intra-day Low at 1723.47 USD and intra-day High at 1767.79USD, eventually closing at 1746.44 USD. Intra-day range of 44.32 USD was seen.
Hedge market conditions weakened, with technical requirements. The rhythm moves down on Friday. The price is going into a period of adjustment.
At present, the movement of upward will not continue. If the price needs to be going upwards, it needs to be adjustment within 1 to 2 months.
The trend in short-term will make the pace of gold into adjustment on high level. The upstream channel is expected to support around 1720-1715 from the beginning of July.
There will be a new high when gold is adjust in the major restructuring cycle.

Trading suggestions:
Price of gold will be moved in the wide range of 1720-1814, trading can be made in short term. If it moves below this range then the movement will be downwards.

Retreating after surging, gold adjusted at high level

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 11 August, the dollar index was in range oscillation. Swiss franc fell sharply. The vice president of Swiss central bank said that
necessary measures will be taken to curb the rise of Swiss franc. At the same time the central bank may increase the mobility of the currency and allow the Swiss franc pegged to the euro.
The released U.S. weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment of last week fell, which pushed up the stock market, and the risk-aversion sentiment was weaken. The data from the U.S. Department of Labor on August 11 showed that this first time jobless claims, fell by 7,000 to 39.5 thousand, is the lowest level since early April, indicating that the recovery of the U.S. job market further improved.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 11, international gold closed lower, due to the positive U.S employment figure and the improved European debt issue. The risk sentiment increased. In addition to the technical factors, gold surged and then retreated.

The market sentiment changes may still be in focus.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Retail Sales (July);
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. Business Inventories (July).

Gold：
Gold opened at 1793.81 USD on 11 August, with intra-day Low at 1733.00 USD and intra-day High at 1814.43 USD, eventually closing at 1764.22 USD. Intra-day range of 81.43 USD was seen.

Since investors took profit and the margin of gold increased, combined with the technical requirements, gold surged and then retreated on Thursday.
The rise of gold in the medium-term has finished. It takes at least 1-2 months adjustment before it rises further.
In a short-term trend, there will still be 5 trading days with high oscillation or upward movement partially.
In terms of a short-term trend, gold is in high level adjustment. It is estimated gold may maintain the high oscillation or the upward movement partially in
the middle of next week.
Gold moved in a large adjustment cycle. There may be higher record.
Trading suggestions:
Positions could be closed after achieving the medium-term target. There will be a large adjustment. If secondary adjustment appeared in short-term, long position could be considered. The recent wide range oscillation may be at 1720-1814 USD.

With high popularity, gold continued to move up in short-term

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 10 August, the dollar index went up in oscillation, getting higher fluctuation.
The U.S. economic prospect and the Eurozone debt concerns contributed to the tumble of global stock markets. The risk currencies, like euro, were sold-off once again.
After the U.S. sovereign credit rating was downgraded, the Eurozone AAA rated countries are also facing the same risk, in which the French rating is particularly affected. Three major rating agencies quickly denied that, but it seems to be difficult to calm the panic in the market.
The Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation remained.

August 10, international gold closed much higher, due to concerns about the European and American economic prospects and debt crisis. The hedged buying increased. Market may continue to focus on sentiment changes.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:00 Eurozone ECB released Monthly Report (August);
GMT+8 20:30 Canada Trade Balance (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Trade Balance, pre-value -50.2 billion USD (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (August 5).

Gold:
Gold opened at 1741.50 USD on 10 August, with intra-day Low at 1739.02 USD and intra-day High at 1796.97 USD, eventually closing at 1793.81 USD. Intra-day range of 57.95 USD was seen.

Gold continued the up movement on Wednesday. Short-term speculators again pushed up the price.
The rise in the medium-term has finished. It takes at least 1-2 months adjustment before the gold rises further.
In a short-term trend, there will still be 5 trading days with high oscillation or upward movement partially.
Gold is in large adjustment cycle. There may be higher record.
Trading suggestions:
Positions could be closed after achieving the medium-term target, and the rest could be held in a small amount with take-profit at 1739. Continuity should be noted. If there is a secondary adjustment in short-term, long position could be considered appropriately.

The medium and short-term targets achieved, and gold oscillated at high level

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 9 August, the dollar index retreated, but Swiss franc continued to rise. The euro and commodity currencies moved in upward oscillation.
Fed announced on Wednesday morning that interest rate will remain unchanged at the range of 0-0.25%, and they promised to maintain the low interest rate until at least mid-2013.
The Fed does not imply to start a new round of quantitative easing policy, but said the downside risk was increasing. They will give clear instructions to maintain low interest rate policy, which is the first time to show clear guidelines since the end of 2008,
Market believed that the Fed didn't immediately turn to the third round of the quantitative easing policy, but directly locked the ultra-low interest rate?in a very long period of time, which means that further easing policy would not be possible.
On the other side, the European Central Bank's new round of assistance measures for Italy and Spain have been challenged by investors. This further exacerbated fears in financial markets.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There will still be many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation continued.

August 9, international gold closed higher, breaking the historical high closing price again. The trend retreated after surging. Market concerned about the global economic prospect and there were selling orders. Investors took gold futures for hedging. The market sentiment will be in focus.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 14:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (July);
GMT+8 14:45 France Industrial Production (June);
GMT+8 17:30 UK Central Bank's quarterly inflation report;
GMT+8 22:00 US Wholesale Inventories (June).
Gold：

Gold opened at 1719. 16 USD on 9 August, with intra-day Low at 1715.40 USD and intra-day High at 1779.18 USD, eventually closing at 1740.92 USD. Intra-day range of 63.78 USD was seen.

Gold achieved the medium-term target 1750 USD due to its popularity and the technical trend on Tuesday. The short-term cycle will be achieved around 1770.
The rise in the medium-term has finished. It takes at least 1-2 months adjustment before the gold rises further.
In the short-term trend, there will still be 5 trading days with high oscillation or upward movement partially.
Gold is in large adjustment cycle. There may be higher record.
Trading suggestions:
Positions could be closed after achieving the medium-term target, and the rest could be held in a small amount with take-profit at 1715. Continuity should be noted.If there is secondary adjustment in short-term, long position could be considered appropriately.

Surging at a higher speed, long position could be maintained

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 8 August, the dollar index fluctuated and oscillated. The worsening debt problems from countries along Atlantic and the pressure of recession undermined investors' confidences, triggering more hedged buying.
Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend.There will still be many uncertainties in the future.The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation continued.

August 8, international gold closed higher, breaking the historical high closing price. After Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. sovereign credit rating, investors withdrew risky assets. S & P said the U.S. Congress and the government's recent agreement on fiscal consolidation program could not stabilize the debt issues in medium-term. With growing challenges, the U.S. decision-making, the effectiveness of political institutions, the stability and the predictability were weakened.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:30 UK Industrial Production (June);
GMT+8 16:30 UK Trade Balance (June);
GMT+8 20:30 US Unit Labor Costs (2nd quarter);
GMT+8 02:15 August 10 US Feb Interest Rate Decision, pre-value 0.25%.
Gold:
Gold opened at 1668. 70 USD on 8 August, with intra-day Low at 1666.56 USD and intra-day High at 1720.30 USD, eventually closing at 1719.47 USD. Intra-day range of 53.74 USD was seen.

Gold oscillated at a certain level and then surged quickly on Monday, breaking the previous weak resistance which is the upside of the rising channel from Jan 28, 2011. The staged target of the overall uptrend was approaching. The estimated range will be at 1740 – 1750.

Considered from the strength of the trend, it is possible for the price to rise above 1740 – 1750 in the next week.
Trading suggestions:
Long position could be held temporarily, with stop-loss below 1670 USD, targeting 1740-1750.

Being pushed by the U.S. debt crisis, gold hita new record

Gold price?fluctuated in the last week, moving from the lowest level 1608.5 on Monday. It rose from 1618 to 1661 on Wednesday and surged to 1,682.20 on Thursday with weekly volatility 73.7. Gold hit the historical highat 1682.2. It retreated on Friday, but maintains at high oscillation, closed at 1663.

The early days of last week, market focus was onwhether the U.S. approved the bill of raising debt ceiling before deadline. The Democratic and Republicanhave finally compromised on the raise of the U.S.debt, as expected. However, there were many different views toward the U.S. economy after the bill being approved. These instabilities affected financial markets. When market was concerning the currencies' crisis incurred from the European and the U.S. debt, South Koreaannounced the purchase of25 tonnes of gold as a Foreign exchange reserve, which stimulated buying orders.So, even though gold was at historical high, it was supported by certain buying orders.

Observed from the technical trend, after gold surged to 1,682.2, it fell on the same day, technically forming the trend of retracement. 1682.2 should be a short-term technical high level and initially there should be higher chances of downward adjustment. However, the price was currentlydominated by market sentiment, especiallywhen the U.S. Standard & Poor's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating from the highest AAA to AAB. Financial markets haven't responded officially, but the trend of gold will fluctuate.

Silver's performance as a whole was not as good as gold. Gold was supported by buying orders, while silver was affected by the economic recession.The high price of silver last week also appeared on Thursday and the highest level was 42.25. However, there was also a one-day retracementso that closing price was lower than the opening price. It price fell obviously on Friday, with the weekly lowest level at 37.50 and closed at 38.35.

It is estimated the volatility of gold and silver this week will still be large. Gold can test a higher level, but silver should be in the downward trend. The volatility of gold will be between1, 620 to 1,700. If market put the downgradeof the U.S. as anunstable factor for hedging, and then there will be furtherinflow of capitals into gold market, it is not difficult to see the price breaking 1,700. The downgrade of U.S. sovereign rating will push up interest rates.This longer-term factors will adversely affect thegold price, but because of the recent buying orders, the influences may emergelater.

There will be greater chance for silver to go down.Even though the rise of gold will support silver,but once it stops, silverwill be weakened again. The week volatility is estimated at 36.50 - 41.50.

Gold rebounded at the range, testing its continuity

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 5 August, major currencies diversified. The foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There will still be many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation and fluctuation maintained.
The growth of the July non-farm payroll was higher than the market expectation. It released some of the tension in the market. However, the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to the concerns of the U.S. budget deficit and the growing debts. In addition, for the purchase of government bonds in Italy and Spain, the European Central Banks have reached a provisional agreement on the condition that two countries must make commitments of the economic reform.
Market investors concerned about the Fed's monetary policy meeting next week.

August 5, international gold closed higher, the positive U.S. payroll data with the debt agreement reached among European Central Bank, Italy and Spain weakened investors' hedging demands.Market adjusted at high level.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 13:45 Swiss Unemployment Rate (July);
GMT+8 13:45 Swiss seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate, pre-value 3.0 (July);
GMT+8 14:30 France BOF Business Confidence (July);
GMT+8 16:30 Eurozone Sentix Investors' Confidence (August).
Gold：
Gold opened at 1648.35 USD on 5 August, with intra-day Low at 1641.98 USD and intra-day High at 1670.15 USD, eventually closing at 1662.72 USD. Intra-day range of 28.17 USD was seen.

Gold oscillated at high level within a narrow range in short-term on Friday. The market uptrend maintained. The price was technically suppressed by the upside of the rising channel from Jan 28, 2011. In terms of continuity, if it is not a strong resistance, it will not be broken.

Considered from the trend continuity, if the price doesn't fall below 1616, and the uptrend of medium and long-term remained unchanged, the estimated target will be between 1740 and 1750.
Trading suggestions:
Long position could be held temporarily, with stop-loss below 1616 USD, targeting 1740.

Momentum appeared in short-term, testing its continuity.

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 4 August, the dollar index rose to two-week high, the European currencies and commodity currencies fell sharply. Due to the market intervention by BOJ, the dollar rebounded sharply against the yen.
The European Central Bank and Bank of England maintained the interest rates unchanged as expected. In the Eurozone, debt crisis of Italy and Spain worsen so that hedging need increased.As investors worried that the global economy may fall back to recession, financial markets tumbled.
Europe's three major stock indexes fell more than 3%. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell more than 4%. The Dow Jones Index fell by 512.61 points in one day, hitting the highest single-day decline since December 1, 2008. The crude oil fell by 5.77% to 86.63 U.S. dollars / barrel due to the market risk aversion.
The Foreign exchange market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation remained.

August 4, international gold closed lower, the afternoon New York market surged to 1,682 USD and then retreated sharply to 1639.85. It is believed that some investors sold gold futures to cover losses in other markets and traders said some investors sold the gold to recover the stock market margin. Gold futures faced pressures was also due to the rise of the dollar.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 18:00 Germany Industrial Production (June);
GMT+8 19:00 Canada Unemployment Rate (July);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Non-agricultural Employment (July);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate (July).
Gold:

Gold opened at 1661. 76 USD on 4 August, with intra-day Low at 1641.05 USD and intra-day High at 1682.05 USD, eventually closing at 1647.98 USD. Intra-day range of 41 USD was seen.

Gold hit a new record on Thursday, but it failed to maintain the adjustment at high level.The market was affected by the fluctuation from financial markets.The market sentiment changed and the significant downside momentum partially appeared.
In term of continuity, the uptrend in medium and long term confirmed if the price doesn't fall below1616.The estimated target will be at the range between 1740 and 1750.
Trading suggestions:
Long position could be held with stop-loss below 1616 USD, targeting 1740.

Price adjusted after surging, and the uptrend confirmed

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 3 August, the dollar fell sharply. The risk bearing currencies diversified.
Swiss central bank unexpectedly cut interest rate to curb the currency's appreciation. Market was shrouded in the weak U.S. economic recovery. The fiscal expansion was limited. The Fed may be preparing to start the third round of the quantitative easing measures.
Market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation remained.

August 3, international gold closed higher, hitting a record high again. Investors worried about the prospect of the U.S. economy which may fall into a "double-dip" recession cycle and may introduce further monetary easing policy.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 12:00 Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision;
GMT+8 18:00 Germany Manufacturing Orders (June);
GMT+8 19:00 UK Central Bank announced Interest Rate Decision, pre-value 0.5%;
GMT+8 19:45 Eurozone European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, pre-value 1.5%;
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (29 July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1660. 41 USD on 3 August, with intra-day Low at 1652.12 USD and intra-day High at 1672.58 USD, eventually closing at 1661.76 USD.

Gold surged slightly and then adjusted on Wednesday and the overall uptrend was perfect. Long position should be maintained.

In term of continuity, the uptrend in medium and long term confirmed if the price doesn't fall below1616. The estimated target will be at the range between 1740 and 1750.
Trading suggestions:
Long position in long term could be held with stop-loss below 1616 USD, targeting 1740.

Trend has been formed perfectly in short and medium term

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 2 August, the major currencies fluctuated and oscillated. The dollar index moved upward slightly.
Although the U.S. two major political parties have reached a compromise on the debt ceiling, avoiding the U.S. debt default, but investors still worried about the sluggish global economic growth and debt burdens of the U.S. and Europe.
Market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation remained.

August 2, international gold closed higher. Due to the bleak prospect of economic growth and the recession, hedging demand rises. Gold was pushed upward from the inflow capital.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 15:55 Germany Services Purchasing Managers Index (July);
GMT+8 16:00 Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers Index (July);
GMT+8 16:30 UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (June);
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. Factory Orders (June);
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing Index (July).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1620. 55 USD on 2 August, with intra-day Low at 1616.58 USD and intra-day High at 1660.80 USD, eventually closing at 1660.35 USD.

Gold moved perfectly on Tuesday, being affected by partial adjustment. At the long-term rise basis, gold achieved the short and medium term oscillation, and also formed retracement after the long period breakthrough.

In term of continuity, the uptrend in medium and long term confirmed if the price doesn't fall below1540. The estimated target will be at the range between 1740 and 1750.
Trading suggestions:
Long position in long term could be held with stop-loss below 1616 USD, targeting 1740.

Oscillation at high level without breakthrough

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 1 August, the risk sentiment deteriorated and non-US currencies fell rapidly. The dollar, yen, and Swiss franc went strong and the exchange rates of Swiss franc and Japanese further increased. The dollar against the yen hit another low record since the earthquake from March 11. Affected by the fundamental factors, market concerned that the Fed would not introduce QE3.
Although the U.S. two major political parties have reached a compromise on the debt ceiling, market still worried that the deficit agreement including a total of 2.4 trillion reduction in the next 10 years is not able to maintain the AAA rating in the U.S. This large-scale deficit reduction may also have bad impacts on the sluggish economy.
In addition, the U.S. manufacturing data directly led to the sudden rise of hedging need.The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in July fell the third consecutive months, dropping to the lowest 50.9 USD since July 2009. The data further exacerbated the market concern on the health of the U.S. economic.
Market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent wide range oscillation remained.

August 1, international gold closed lower, oscillating at high level. The upward momentum of daily chart weakened, but the overall trend did not change.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 16:30 UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (June);
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Personal Income (June).
Gold:
Gold opened at 1626. 10 USD on 1 August, with intra-day Low at 1609.28 USD and intra-day High at 1631.10 USD, eventually closing at 1620. 55 USD. Intra-day range of 21.82 USD was seen.

Gold continued the adjustment at high level on Monday, but not able to break through the oscillation range of 1603.85-1632.41. Market is still waiting for the short-term direction.

In term of continuity, the uptrend in medium and long term confirmed if the price doesn't fall below1540. Partial adjustments may occur.
Trading suggestions:
Oscillation range is between 1603.85 and 1632.41. Range trading is recommended for short position or position could be opened when there is a breakthrough at closing, targeting 1649.

The concerns of theU.S. debt supported gold and the trend was fickle

Gold hit another record high last week and surged to a new record of 1,633USD on Friday. Theoverall trend moved upward, but the price from Monday to Thursdayfluctuated. Although the pricepushed higher, but it lacked of continuity and it was unable to hold. Then it hit to 1,628.50 on Wednesday, but retreated immediately to 1608.It dropped back to the low level 1,602.8 on Thursday. Since there were certain buy orders at 1600, it formed a support in short-term. After the price stabilized, it reached the record highon Friday, closing at 1,626.50.

Silver and gold's trend were different last week.Gold fluctuated at high level and retreatedon Wednesday, but it rebounded to a high record on Friday; while silver fluctuated and retreated last week. It opened at 40.40 on Monday and tested the weekly high level at 41.5. After that, it moved downward on Thursday and Friday. The weekly low level was at 39.30 and closed at 39.80 on Friday.

Gold gained support last week mainly from hedge funds and hedge buying.The U.S.Republican and Democraticargued about the increase of the U.S. debt limit so as to gain political supports.Both of them were uncompromising.This lose-lose political struggle turned to a stalemate.Once thebill of increasing the U.S. national debt limit is notpassed, the U.S. will not be able to repay maturingdebts from debt, i.e.the U.S. government was default, being regarded asbankruptcy. The credit rating of bonds therefore will be substantially reduced or even they turned into no-value. This debt default had a great blow on the U.S. economy, U.S. stocks and the dollar. Many people believed that this political struggle was a show for image only. Both the Republicans and Democrats did not want to bear the charge of bankruptcy so that the increase of the U.S. debt limit will ultimately be passed. However, due to uncertain factors, some investors have to buy gold to hedge the risk. Observed from the trend and price changeslast week, the price of gold quickly pushed higher after receiving buying orders, but it went weak quickly. It means although the price was high,market still lacked strong buying support.

Market focus will be the Congressdecision on the pass of legislation before the deadline August 2, which cannot be easily estimated. If the U.S.national debt limit does not increase, how will the government pay back due debts? The dollar may sell off, but the downgrade of the national debt will push up the U.S. interest ratedue to the lack of capital. The U.S. economy and the dollar will fluctuate according to the fluctuations of investor's sentiment and the market. So, risk is significant. Simply looking on the pricefluctuation, the gold volatility is estimated at1,600 - 1,640, but larger fluctuation at August 2 will not be unusual. Silver's volatility probably follows the gold, but the downward volatility is more likely to appear, which is estimated at 38.50 - 41.50. Investors should pay moreattention to thefickle trend inshort-term.

Hitting the historical high, but upside breakthrough failed at closing.

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 29 July, the dollar index oscillated and retreated.
Before the unified trend formed in the market, there are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent repeated oscillation in the wide range maintained.
The political battle between the U.S. Republican and Democratic continues. They competed because of the general election next year. This was initially a simple political game, but it turned to a frequent speculation in the market. Price fluctuated and repeated.
This political game will eventually be settled and there should be no major impacts on the overall trend. It is not the focus of long-term market.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the second-quarter gross domestic product and the related revised data from previous few years. The report shows the economic situation is worse than expected, and the current recession is more serious.
The weak economic data created pressures on the dollar. Regardless of the U.S. debt crisis, the slowdown of economic growth ensures that the Federal Reserve maintains the policy of nearly zero interest rate in the foreseeable future.

July 29, international gold closed higher, hitting an officially high record. The U.S. GDP was disappointed. The negotiation deadlock between the U.S. government and the Congress regarding the increase of the federal debt ceiling still continues.

Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 15:55 Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (July);
GMT+8 16:00 Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (July);
GMT+8 16:30 U.K. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (July);
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate (June);
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. Construction Spending (June);
GMT+8 22:00 U.S. Institute for Supply Management ISM Manufacturing Index, pre-value 55.3 (July).

Gold:
Gold opened at 1615. 85 USD on 29 July, with intra-day Low at 1610.97 USD and intra-day High at 1632.41 USD, eventually closing at 1626. 91 USD. Intra-day range of 21.44 USD was seen.

Gold moved upward after the choppy consolidation at high level on last Friday. The market trend did not continue at closing. It is waiting for the short-term direction.
Considered the major characteristics of continuity from the trend, if the price maintains above 1603.85, the recent uptrend will not change. After further breakthrough, the partial target will be at 1644.27. The further support is located at 1,600, and the low level of 1583.80 at July 22.
After gold reasonably broke through the long-cycle secondary adjustment pattern before closing, supports were densely distributed. Each support can be analyzed as a reference of long position. Theoretically the upward trend of gold is clear.
Currently long position remains. Once the price falls below 1576.50, 1567,1558 and 1546 USD, and the partial pattern occurs, downward range appears.
Trading suggestions:
Buying orders could be held appropriately with take-profit at 1610.97. Short position could be open after a further breakthrough continues at closing, targeting at 1644.27. Or when the retracement appears in the hourly chart, long position could be considered.