Monday, July 25, 2011

Partial adjustment continued and long position could be considered

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 22 July, the dollar index oscillated within a narrow range. Two parties in the U.S. did not reach a consensus on the U.S. debt ceiling. The dollar index changed from the previous retracement pattern to the flag pattern in the technical chart. The non-US currencies rose and fell with partial adjustment.
Market basically continued the previous technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent repeated oscillation in the wide range maintained.
The U.S government may have the following three results on the negotiation of for the debt ceiling: Increasing the debt ceiling and reaching the long –term debt reduction program; increasing the debt ceiling but did not reach a long-term debt reduction program; failing? to increase the debt ceiling before the deadline of August 2.
July 22, international gold closed higher. The U.S. Senate rejected the plan of the House of Representatives for increasing the government borrowing limit, which therefore created new concerns to the market. As long as the U.S. debt ceiling is not reached on the exact agreement, the market risk sentiment will always be maintained.
In addition, the debt crisis in Europe did not completely end. The outside Eurozone countries will have to finance in the coming months and years, which leads to further uncertainties. Commerzbank said the debt issue has not been eradicated in Europe.
The U.S. debt crisis, debt crisis in Europe and the United States' third round of the quantitative easing monetary policy are expected to be main factors influencing the gold trend.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 Australia Producer Price Index (2nd quarter)
Gold:
Gold opened at 1590. 24 USD on 22 July, with intra-day Low at 1583.80 USD and intra-day High at 1607.26 USD, eventually closing at 1601. 6 USD. Intra-day range of 23. 46 USD was seen.
Gold in the early European market on Friday tested the Thursday's low point and then rebounded. The adjustment at high level was clear. The recent oscillation range is between1576.50 and 1610. The dynamic changes of the potential pattern will be in focus. Whether it continues the adjustment at high level or continues the upward movement? It determines the time for opening a position.
After gold reasonably broke through the long-cycle secondary adjustment pattern before closing, supports were densely distributed. Each support can be analyzed as a reference of long position. Theoretically the upward trend of gold is clear.
Note that the direction was only shown in the overall pattern, and there will be partial adjustments and changes.
?
Currently long position remains. Once the price falls below 1576.50 USD, and the quick retreat occurs, downward range appears.
Trading suggestions:
Oscillating at high level, the downward buying orders could be held with take-profit. It is expected that if it breaks the recent resistance near 1610 USD, gold will continue the range to 1626.

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