Thursday, July 07, 2011

Gold surged, and ECB's meeting for interest rate will be in focus

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 6 July, the euro fell against the dollar the second day. It created unrest in the market when Portuguese debt rating was downgraded to a bottom level. The raise of interest rate in China led to concerns about global economic growth. The market will focus on the ECB's rate decision and U.S. payrolls data.
Although the finance ministers of Eurozone have approved a loan of 12 billion euro for Greece, it did not alleviate people's concern. Portugal's downgrade rated by Moody's further raised the hedging need.
Market continued the previous major technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the market.
July 6, international gold closed higher. The global debt problems prompted a greater hedging need of investors for the purchase of gold futures. It depends on debtors' reliability. The next few days, traders will still focus on the debt problems of the United States and Eurozone. Market participants will also pay close attention to the release of the U.S. employment report later this week.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 19:00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
GMT+8 19:45 Eurozone European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
GMT+8 20:30 European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's Press Conference
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (July 2)
GMT+8 22:30 U.S. Fed Hoenig's Speech
Gold:
Gold opened at 1515.64 USD on 7 July, with intra-day Low at 1510. 30 USD and intra-day High at 1533.80 USD, eventually closing at 1529.02 USD. Intra-day range of 23.50 USD was seen.
Gold tested the support near 1511 USD on Wednesday, continuously going upward and closed above 1527. The oscillation range moved up.
Observed from the hourly chart, the reliable stop-loss is at 1510.3 USD, but it is far from the current price. The price may go up and down repeatedly.
Please remind that there were uncertainties and repetition in the market trend.
Before the change of gold's long-term uptrend, the whole pattern was in wide range oscillation.
Trading suggestions:
Long position opened at the downside range from yesterday could be held with take-profit. Short position could be opened when retracement pattern appears or the price is approaching the upside of 1510.3 USD.

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