Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Breaking through the range suppression, gold may retreat in short-term

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 18 July, the concerns of whether the U.S. Congress raising debt ceiling and the Eurozone debt problems created market pressure. The dollar index reached the connection of high levels from May 23 and June 27 and then retreated. With the deadline of the U.S. debt approaching and the upcoming Eurozone meeting on Thursday, market temporarily remained cautious.
Market continued the previous large pattern in the technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent repeated oscillation in the wide range is dramatic.
July 18, international gold rose above the long-cycle parallel channel before closing, breaking a new record. Investors still worried about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the risk of the U.S. government debt default. The focus will be on the progress of debt negotiations and the possibility of raising debt ceiling.
Key Economic Data and Events:
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone Construction Spending (May)
GMT+8 17:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)
GMT+8 20:30 Canada Leading Indicators (June)
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Housing Starts (June)
GMT+8 20:30 U.S. Building Permits (June)
GMT+8 21:00 Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Gold:
Gold opened at 1604. 75 USD on 18 July, with intra-day Low at 1592.15 USD and intra-day High at 1607. 30USD, eventually closing at 1604. 75 USD. Intra-day range of 15. 15 USD was seen.
After adjusting in the hourly chart on Monday, gold before closing, broke through the upper part along the parallel range created by the connection between the low points of May 5 and July 1and the high level at May 2.
Theoretically the direction of the uptrend of gold was determined. However, the upward moving range since 1541USD nearly came to the end. If the market momentum does not continue, the price will retrace.
Note that the direction was only shown in the overall pattern, and there are partial adjustments and changes. Leveraged trading is different from the trading without multiples. It should be more stringent for the timing of every position.
Trading suggestions:
Long position at low level could be held with take-profit at 1592.15 USD. Investors could buy in when the partial adjustment appears. Or buying at the upper side of the uptrend channel with stop-loss at 1592.15 could be considered.

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