Monday, July 18, 2011

Gold broke a record high with resistance from upside range

Market Reviews of the Previous Day:
During NY session on 15 July, the EU Banking Authority has announced the latest stress test result. Among all the tested European banks, only eight failed. Market questioned that the restrictions of this test are too loose to weigh the overall systematic risk. The risk aversion in the market remained high.
Market continued the previous large pattern in the technical trend. There are still many uncertainties in the future. The recent repeated oscillation in the wide range is dramatic. If the euro has the secondary adjustment, long position could be considered.
July 15, international gold hit a record high in the third consecutive day, mainly due to the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the concern about the risk of default by U.S. government.
Key Economic Data and Events:
Japan market closed
GMT+8 21:00 U.S. Net Capital Inflows, pre-value 68.2 billion USD (May)
Gold:
Gold opened at 1586. 90 USD on 15 July, with intra-day Low at 1576.76 USD and intra-day High at 1593. 98 USD, eventually closing at 1593. 39 USD. Intra-day range of 17. 22 USD was seen.
Gold moved in the oscillation range between 1576.51 and 1600 in short-term on Friday, and it moved at the downside along the parallel range and adjusted at high level.
Investors can pay attention to the upper part moving along the parallel range created by the connection between the low points of May 5 and July 1, and the high level at May 2. It is estimated to be around 1598-1600 USD.
The overall movement is within a wide range oscillation.
The retracement pattern from May 2 had strong repetition, possibly with a variety of movements. Before a substantial breakthrough of the upside parallel range and the retracement happen, market may change easily.
Trading suggestions:
Long position at low level could be held with take-profit at 1572 USD whereas the long position at the downside range from last weekend could be closed appropriately. The rest could be held with take-profit and waiting for the breakthrough.

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